2010年MIRAE-中国房地产深度研究报告_70页

China/RealEstateHedgefundinvestorsLong-onlyinvestorsTradingopportunitiesarepresent,basedonvaluationcallsanddrivenbyeventssuchasspecificprojectpresalesandpolicynews.Overallopportunitiesnowarequiteneutralunlesslong-terminvestorsarelookingfordeepdiscountstocks.1InitiatingcoverageNeutral17March2010Goldilocksinthehouse?China’spropertymarkettodaysharestraitsofthe2009July-November“cool-down”period:buyersina‘waitandsee’modeamidpolicynoise,andprogressivelytightercredit.Againstthisbackdrop,weexpectpropertypricestostayflatandvolumetodecline20-25%YoYin2010.Butfurtherphysicalmarketrisksappeartobediscounted;developers’sharepricesmayhavepricedina0-40%YoYASPdeclinealready.WeinitiatecoverageonChina’sdeveloperswithaNeutral,buthaveBUYsonChinaOverseasLand,Shimao,R&F,GloriousandKWGbasedontheirindividualvaluationsandupsidepotential.ChinaResourcesLand,SinoOcean,LongforareratedHold.»Goldilockseconomy:FromtoohottojustrightSeethelastpageofthisreportforimportantdisclosuresFromobservingthewaxingandwaningpropertyc